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U.S. retail sales accelerated and rose more than expected in November. Strong auto sales and a jump in e-commerce owing to healthy Black Friday and Cyber Monday receipts suggests consumers remain resilient during the crucial holiday shopping season. Retail spending, unadjusted for inflation, rose 0.7% topping expectations for 0.6%.

The U.S. job market rebounded from an anemic October clouded by strikes and storms.

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October and September figures were revised higher suggesting consumers are entering the start of holiday season with strong momentum. 

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U.S. retail sales rose more than expected September in a broad advance highlighting resilient consumer spending in the third quarter.

In September, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.4% compared to a year ago, decelerating 0.1% compared to August, but above expectations for 2.3%.

Job gains came in stronger than anticipated; unemployment rate falls slightly; revisions to prior months’ data were positive.  The US economy added far more jobs than analysts anticipated in September, in what is the strongest job growth figure since March of this year.  Overall, the report lends credence to the prospect of a soft landing […]

In August, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose just 2.5% compared to a year ago, decelerating 0.4% compared to July and in line with expectations.

Hiring improved from July’s weak report but missed expectations in August as wage growth rebounded slightly and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.

National 401(k) Day began in 1996 to promote retirement savings education and awareness. It’s celebrated on the first Friday in September so that you can start your week with Labor Day and end your week thinking about retirement.

July retail spending accelerated by more than expected compared to June in a broad advance aided somewhat by a recovery in auto sales after a cyberattack on dealerships led to a sizeable drop last month.

In July, consumer prices rose 2.9% compared to a year ago, decelerating 0.1% compared to June and below expectations of 3.0%.

The U.S. stock market is approaching correction territory – a decline of 10% of more from a recent peak.

The July jobs report is fueling a risk-off trade with stocks set to open 1.5-2.5% lower and the 10 year treasury yield falling 10-15 bps.

Today’s report contradicts a recent trend pointing to gradual erosion of consumer strength, suggesting the economy’s main driver is holding up better than expected as inflation recedes and Fed policymakers consider rate cuts.

In June, consumer prices rose 3.0% compared to a year ago, down 0.3% compared to May and below expectations of 3.1%. This marks the third consecutive month of deceleration and another positive sign for Fed policymakers.

Hiring and wage growth decelerated in June and the unemployment rate ticked up adding support to the case for interest rate cuts in the coming months.

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U.S. retail sales barely changed in May and prior months were revised lower, pointing to ongoing erosion of consumer strength.

In May, consumer prices rose 3.3% compared to a year ago, down 0.1% compared to April and below expectations. This marks the second consecutive month of deceleration – a positive sign for Fed policymakers.

U.S. employers accelerated hiring in May and wage growth reaccelerated after a relatively weak report in April.

Year-over-year, inflation rose 3.4% in April, down 0.1% compared to march and in line with expectations.

U.S. retail sales stalled in April after downwardly revised gains in the February and March.

U.S. retail sales rose by more than forecast in March and February results were revised upward, highlighting yet-resilient consumer demand exiting the first quarter.

Year-over-year, inflation rose 3.5% in March, up 0.3% compared to February and 0.1% ahead of expectations.

Job gains were strong again in March (stop me if you’ve heard this before).  The U.S. labor market added 303k jobs in March, exceeding expectations for 214k jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Revisions to January and February data were marginally positive, adding 22k jobs to total employment collectively. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3%, […]

On the heels of a robust holiday shopping season, U.S. retail sales decelerated sharply in January and missed forecasts in February, underscoring concerns over how household spending will hold up this year.

Year-over-year, inflation rose 3.2% in February, up 0.1% compared to January and 0.1% ahead of expectations.  Month-over-month, prices increased +0.4%, up 0.1% compared to January and consistent with expectations.  While inflation has declined substantially from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, today’s report reinforces the Fed’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates as […]

Strong February job gains mask a gradually cooling labor market.  The unemployment rate climbed to a two-year high of 3.9% in February, but remains below 4% as hiring remained healthy.  The U.S. labor market added 275K jobs following a combined 167K downward revision to the prior two months.  The rise in the unemployment rate appeared […]

You may have seen another regional bank in the headlines recently, NYCB – New York Community Bancorp.  The trouble with NYCB appears to be isolated. However, we wanted to point out that NYCB owns Flagstar bank which has several branches in Michigan. If you have a client with uninsured deposits (>$250,000) at Flagstar, you should […]

The Corporate Transparency Act is simple in concept, but more complicated in its application. Wendy Cox supplies some definitions, deadlines and guidelines on how to navigate the new legislation.

On the heels of a robust holiday shopping season, U.S. retail sales decelerated sharply in January falling short of expectations. 

Surging job gains and higher wages great for economy and consumers, but likely extend rate cut timing.

Year-over-year, inflation accelerated to 3.4% in December – the highest reading since September.

Year-over-year, inflation decelerated modestly to 3.1% from 3.2% in October.  Month-over-month, inflation ticked up to 0.1% from 0.0% in October. 

U.S. employers added more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s intent to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Despite volatility in recent months, inflation has declined substantially from a 40-year high of 9.1% reached last year.

Cooling, not Freezing.  After an unexpected surge in September, U.S. hiring cooled by more than expected in October and the unemployment rate inched slightly higher.  The U.S. labor market added 150K jobs, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, and wages grew slightly less than expected.  Of note: the UAW strike accounted for a 33K decline […]

U.S. retail sales came in better than expected in September underscoring the resiliency of consumer demand exiting the third quarter. In real terms, retail spending increased 0.3% compared to August and 0.1% year-over-year. The advance showcases an American consumer that continues to spend money in spite of a recent energy-driven increase in inflation.

Underlying inflation came in at a brisk 3.7% (year-over-year) pace for a second straight month in September underscoring how a resilient labor market continues to support consumer demand which threatens to keep inflation levels above the Fed’s 2% target.

U.S. hiring unexpectedly surged in September by the most since January, highlighting continuing resiliency of the labor market and bolstering the case for another Fed rate hike.

Hiring up and wage growth down.  U.S. hiring accelerated in August and wage growth cooled – opposing signals from today’s report.  The U.S. labor market added 187K jobs, the unemployment rate rose 0.3% to 3.8%, and wage moderated.  A resilient labor market has been key to ongoing economic expansion in 2023.  While job openings and […]

Today’s report suggests that American consumers, supported by a strong labor market and rising wages, continue to support a growing economy despite tightening monetary policy.

On a year-over-year basis, July inflation data showed overall annualized price increases accelerated slightly to 3.3% (from 3.0% in June) largely owing to base effects of a tougher prior-year compare as peak inflation levels of 9.1% recorded in June 2022 have now annualized.

Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 5.25-5.50% – the highest level in 22 years. The committee left the door open to additional increases as policymakers continue their efforts to quell inflation.

U.S. retail sales came in below expectations on a month-over-month basis, and remained soft year-over-year. In real terms, retail spending was unchanged compared to May and declined 1.5% year-over-year.

June inflation data showed overall annualized price increases slowing for a twelfth straight month to 3.0% – down from a June 2022 peak of 9.1% and to the lowest level in more than two years. 

The U.S. labor market added 209K jobs, the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 3.6%, and wage growth held steady in June. On July 26, Fed policymakers will decide whether or not to raise interest rates by another 0.25% after pausing in June.

U.S. retail sales were stronger than expected on a month-over-month basis, but remain lower on a year-over-year basis.   

The Fed paused its rate hikes to allow for additional time to assess incoming economic data.

The U.S. labor market added 339K jobs in May after an upwardly revised +294K in April and the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 3.7%.

U.S. retail sales increased less than expected month-over-month and decelerated further on a year-over-year basis.

The U.S. labor market added 253K jobs in April after a downwardly revised 165K in March and the unemployment rate fell back to a multi-decade low of 3.4%.

Fed Statement Side-by-Side Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 5.00-5.25%. This has the potential to be the last rate hike as the Fed Funds Rate now matches the 2023 year-end dot plot from the March meeting. Key takeaways: The Fed raised interest rates 0.25%, as expected, to a […]

Job gains moderated, unemployment declined.  With 236K jobs added in March, payroll additions aligned closely with expectations, but marked the lowest monthly gain since December 2020 amid Fed efforts to slow labor demand and cool inflation.  Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.5%.  Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% compared to February contributing to wage […]

Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 4.75-5.00%. It maintained projections for a year-end 2023 top rate of 5.25% – implying one additional 0.25% increase this year.

February inflation data showed overall annualized price increases slowing for an eighth straight month – matching analysts’ expectations

Job report details hint at slowing inflation. 

U.S. retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand which, combined with yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation report and labor market resiliency, could mean the Fed will need to raise interest rates more than originally expected.

January inflation data showed price increases slowing for the seventh straight month, though not to the degree analysts had anticipated. The

Blockbuster jobs report keeps pressure on the Fed. U.S. employers added significantly more jobs than expected in January and the unemployment rate edged down to a 53-year low.

Fed Statement Side-by-Side: https://file.ac/QIEfaKSk2vI/ Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 4.50-4.75%.  The market is now lower than the fed, pricing for a terminal rate of 4.75-5.00% before 75-100 bps of cuts in late 2023 & early 2024. Key takeaways: The Fed raised interest rates 0.25%, as expected, to […]

This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis delivered an advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth.  The report showed that real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.9%, compared to expectations of +2.6%, following growth of 3.2% in the third quarter. 

U.S. retail sales fell by more than forecast in December (-1.1% MoM vs. -0.9% expected) with a real year-over-year decline of 0.5%. While real year-over-year retail sales declines can be a leading indicator of a recession, softness is also an indication that Fed efforts to reduce consumer demand, and in turn inflation, is having an impact.

Solid hiring and decelerating wage growth may offer Fed some breathing room. U.S. employers again added more jobs than expected in December and the unemployment rate edged lower while wage growth decelerated more than expected and participation increased slightly. Today’s report highlights resiliency of the labor market, but may also be an early indication that the persistent imbalance between the supply and demand for labor is beginning to unwind. A sustained deceleration in wage growth could lead Fed officials to pursue less aggressive policy moves in the coming months.

U.S. retail sales posted the largest month over month decline in nearly a year reflecting softness in a range of categories that suggest some easing in American’s demand for goods. The report suggests some loss in momentum in consumer demand for goods amid high inflation and a shift in preferences favoring services. While rising wages and excess savings built up during the pandemic have helped support spending, consumers are feeling more pressure. While real year-over-year retail sales declines can be a leading indicator of a recession, softness is also an indication that Fed efforts to reduce consumer demand, and in turn inflation, is having an impact.

• The Fed raised interest rates 0.50%, as expected, to a range of 4.25-4.50%.
• Projections for the rate next year were revised upward by 0.50%, from 4.50-4.75% to 5.00-5.25%. This was a hawkish surprise and is impacting risk assets.
• The bond market is unconvinced, and continues to price in a high-point of a 4.75-5.00% rate and then cuts of 1.00% by early 2024.
• Chair Powell noted that the economy appears to be slowing, but continued to characterize the labor market as out-of-balance, and risks to inflation as skewed to the upside.

November inflation data surprised positively this morning for the second month in a row offering hope that decades high price increases are easing and perhaps giving Fed policymakers additional breathing room in the months ahead.

Good news is bad news. Continued job gains highlight strong demand, but offer little relief for the Fed. U.S. employers again added more jobs than expected in November and wages increased more than expected underscoring continued labor market strength despite rising interest rates and concerns of an impending recession.

U.S. retail sales posted the largest month over month increase since February and real growth of 0.6% year-over-year indicating that demand for goods is broadly holding up despite decades high inflation and a deteriorating economic outlook.   While real year-over-year growth in retail sales tends to be an indication of economic health, consumer resilience may complicate […]

October inflation data surprised positively this morning offering hope that decades high price increases are easing  and perhaps giving Fed policymakers some breathing room in the months ahead.  The Consumer Price Index rose 7.7% from the same period a year ago compared to expectations of +7.9%.   In addition to beating expectations, October CPI was the […]

U.S. retail sales slowed in September with inflation adjusted spending unchanged from a year ago and down month over month.  Weaker retail spending is an indication that rampant inflation is catching up with consumers.  The Fed is expected to implement a fourth 0.75% rate increase next month as part of an ongoing effort to soften […]

On the heels of last week’s solid jobs report, September inflation data came in hotter than expected this morning likely cementing another 0.75% Fed rate increase next month.  While policymakers have responded to elevated inflation with the fastest hiking cycle in over 30 years, the labor market and consumer demand have remained resilient.   The Consumer […]

Continued job gains underpin consumer health, offering no relief for the Fed.  U.S. employers added jobs at a healthy, though more moderate pace in September and the unemployment rate fell, suggesting the labor market remains resilient against aggressive rate increases from the Federal Reserve.  While there have been some signs of moderating labor demand including […]

Back into a Bear Market and Near the Year’s Low The markets are experiencing another volatile quarter. We are writing today to provide an update on what’s changed since the official start of the bear market back in June. We will also provide some historical context on bear markets and share our thoughts of what […]

Side by Side Statement Comparison: Attachment: https://file.ac/3J4OO5c0VOs/ Fed raises interest rates by another 0.75% as inflation remains too high. The policy range is now 3.00%-3.25%. The Fed projects 5 more 2022 hikes and a year-end target rate of 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed projects 1 hike in 2023 before easing in 2024. At its meeting today the […]

U.S. consumers showed resilience in August as real retail sales grew 0.8% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month.  In nominal terms, retail spending increased 9.1% for the year and 0.3% compared to July.  Economists were anticipating a month-over-month decline of 0.1%.  The value of sales at gas stations dropped again on lower fuel prices, likely freeing up […]

U.S. inflation was more resilient than anticipated in August despite falling energy prices, keeping pressure on the Fed to implement a third 75 bps rate increase later this month.  The Consumer Price Index rose 8.3% from a year earlier, down from 8.5% in July and a peak of 9.1% in June, but higher than expected.  […]

Solid job gains and higher participation underpin consumer health, illuminates Fed challenges.  U.S. employers added jobs at a healthy, yet more moderate pace in August, offering little definitive evidence of an economic slowdown despite an increase in the unemployment rate.  Labor force participation increased and wage growth decelerated slightly.  Overall, the report highlights a continued […]

July retail sales were flat compared to a month earlier as sharp declines in gasoline prices and auto purchases masked better results in other categories.  Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.7%.  The significant drop in gas prices likely aided consumer sentiment while freeing up cash to spend elsewhere.  The Fed continues […]

U.S. inflation decelerated more than expected in July on lower energy prices, which may reduce pressure on the Fed to continue on its aggressive rate hiking path.  The Consumer Price Index rose 8.5% from a year earlier, cooling from the 9.1% (40 year high) in June as a decline in gasoline prices offset increases in […]

This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis delivered an advance estimate of second quarter GDP growth.  The report showed that real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter following a decrease of 1.6% in the first quarter.  In yesterday’s Fed update, we cautioned that a negative GDP print could trigger […]

U.S. inflation came in higher than expected in June, which will keep the Fed on an aggressive tightening path intended to tamp down demand.  Policymakers have already signaled a second 75 bp rate hike to come later this month, which should be considered the base case following today’s report.  Some economists have suggested that June […]

Background on the Situation: Following a period of failed diplomatic reconciliation, Russian president Vladimir Putin officially declared war with Ukraine last night. Shortly thereafter, a series of military advances were made by the Russian army into Ukraine, extending all the way to Ukraine’s capital city, Kyiv. Leading up to today’s events, the United States and […]

Fed statement side-by-side comparison Fed sets the stage for hiking to begin at their next meeting, March 16 At its meeting today the FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25% and to finish tapering in early March. Some market participants speculated that the FED might raise interest rates by 0.50% in […]

Dear Clients and Friends of Greenleaf Trust, Each month we send our newsletter titled “Perspectives” to our clients and friends of Greenleaf Trust. Almost always, the content is about the economy, financial markets, wealth management retirement and financial planning. Today it is important that we talk honestly about a national crisis that has plagued our […]

The coronavirus induced sell-off is reaching new depths today as investors continue to grapple with the rapid spread of the virus and uncertainty around a fiscal response to curb slower economic growth from the outbreak.  The S&P 500 officially entered bear market territory this morning with losses extending more than 25% from the late February […]

Happy Monday? Oil prices, already beleaguered by softening demand owing to the coronavirus, opened another 30% lower to $35/barrel after disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance triggered a full blown price war among the world’s biggest oil producers.  The oil price shock adds another facet of uncertainty during a period of instability for the global economy […]

On January 27, we published a note sharing our perspective on the coronavirus outbreak.  While our views are largely unchanged, we felt it was important to provide an update as the issue continues to evolve. Status of the Outbreak: The coronavirus (COVID-19) manifests as a pneumonia-like illness resistant to standard treatments, and is believed to […]

Concerns over the human and economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China have driven a financial market flight to safety in recent days.  The outbreak invites anxiety on the heels of a sustained rally in U.S. stocks that occurred despite looming issues including a presidential impeachment, ongoing global trade negotiations, and a flare up […]

What happened? The tone in global financial markets turned cautious this morning after a U.S. airstrike in Iraq ordered by President Trump killed one of Iran’s most powerful generals, fueling concern over escalating tensions.  According to the Defense Department, the U.S. military took “decisive defensive action” by killing General Qaseem Soleimani who was “actively developing […]

We have been focused on two primary drivers for US markets in 2019: trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. On Wednesday, July 31st, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. In his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted trade policy’s impact on their decision to ease: “After simmering early in […]

Less than two weeks ago, investors were operating under the assumption that a U.S./China trade deal was all but certain.  Much has changed in a short period. Uncertainty has been reintroduced around when, or if, an agreement will materialize.  We continue to believe an eventual compromise is the most likely outcome, but for now, visibility […]

Considerable time these days is spent identifying ways to include the value of trust assets in the settlor’s gross estate in order to obtain an income tax basis adjustment to those assets. But the settlor or beneficiary’s death is a condition to this planning strategy. What if capital gain exclusion could be obtained while the […]

Disclaiming an interest in property has always been a way to add flexibility to an estate plan. By exercising of a timely qualified disclaimer, the disclaimant effectively moves assets to another individual, or to a trust, without incurring any gift tax. Consequently, disclaimer planning takes center-stage in many estate plans these days by spouses to […]

A couple of months ago I wrote about the possible use of spousal lifetime access trusts (SLATs) as a way for a married couple to exploit the recent $5 million increase in their respective federal gift tax exemption amount, while still retaining access to the cash flow generated by those transferred assets. Yet another technique […]

The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act provides more incentives for individuals to gift assets either to their family members or to dynasty-type irrevocable trusts. The temporary increase in the applicable transfer tax exemption amount by $5.6 million per individual encourages the wealthy to consider making large gifts when no federal gift tax will be […]

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act (the 2017 Tax Act) provided several surprises, although I am not sure that it actually delivered that much simplification to a complex tax code as was promised. One big surprise was to make alimony or spousal support no longer tax deductible by the payer or taxable to the recipient. […]

Structuring an estate to obtain an income tax basis ‘step-up’ upon the death of a client continues to be a significant goal of many estate plans. New planning strategies try to exploit old estate tax rules to intentionally cause an asset to be included in a decedent’s taxable estate. This approach attempts to create rights […]

Modern trust statutes provide several ways in which to modify an irrevocable trust. For example, in Michigan an irrevocable trust can be decanted to move its assets to a new trust that is created by the trustee. MCL 700.7820a. Additionally, Michigan’s version of the Uniform Trust Code also offers several other procedures that can be […]

Much has been written lately about Michigan’s recent venture into the asset protection trust waters with its adoption of the Qualified Dispositions in Trust Act (the Act) effective in March of this year. The Act clearly indicates that a transfer of assets into the Qualified Dispositions Trust can only be set aside following by the […]

Decanting a trust is one way to eliminate or change provisions in an existing trust that are viewed as undesirable, or which are no longer workable due to changes in the law or the beneficiary’s circumstances. While there are some statutory limitations imposed on the trustee’s decanting power (e.g. the inability to decant-away the beneficiary’s […]

Why it is relevant: The draft persons of the proposed bill, which ultimately became the Michigan Qualified Dispositions in Trust Act [MCL 700.1041 et. seq.] thought that the Act could possibly result in a business boom for estate planning attorneys and trust companies in northern and western Michigan. Their reasoning was based on the notion […]

No one really seems to know these days what Michigan’s public policy is when it comes to prenuptial agreements or for that matter, postnuptial agreements. We are told that if a married couple enters into a postnuptial agreement while living together and with divorce not imminent, their agreement is against Michigan’s public policy and thus […]

With the uncertainty that surrounds the possibility of tax law changes by Congress this year, what advice can an advisor provide to their clients when it comes to estate planning? We are left wondering if there will be a federal estate tax, a federal generation skipping transfer tax, a federal gift tax, a ‘step-up’ (or […]

Just when you think you know what the law requires, along comes a court decision that throws water on that conventional thinking. Such was the situation last fall when the Michigan Court of Appeals in In re Estate of Sabry Mohamed Attia (October 10, 2016) surprised many estate planners with a decision that permits an […]

I had the dubious opportunity to serve both as a divorce attorney and an estate planning attorney for over 42 years. One lesson that I learned is that many divorce attorneys are not always cognizant of the income tax implications that arise in a divorce settlement. Many divorce attorneys even go so far as to […]

While most trusts are established to make distributions to either individuals who are the named trust beneficiaries or to a charity, a purpose trust normally exists to hold or to dispose of specific assets, meaning the trust exists to carry out a specific purpose rather than to provide a benefit to particular individuals. Purpose trusts […]