November Inflation - Lower Than Expected

November inflation data surprised positively this morning for the second month in a row offering hope that decades high price increases are easing  and perhaps giving Fed policymakers additional breathing room in the months ahead.  The Consumer Price Index rose 7.1% from the same period a year ago compared to expectations of +7.3%.   In addition to beating expectations, November CPI was the lowest print this year, and marked deceleration from +7.7% in October and a peak of +9.1% in June.  Core CPI rose 6.0% decelerating from +6.3% in October and a peak of +6.6% in September.

• Consumer prices (CPI) increased 7.1% year-over-year.  In November, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 7.1%, decelerating from 7.7% in October.  Expectations ranged from 7.1% to 7.5% with a median of 7.3%.  Food (+11%) and energy (+13%) remained the largest contributors to the overall increase.  Core CPI (excludes food and energy) increased 6.0% year-over-year (vs. expectations of +6.1%), decelerating from 6.6% (40-year high water mark) in September.
• Consumer prices (CPI) increased 0.1% month-over-month.  In November, consumer prices increased 0.1% compared to October.  Expectations ranged from -0.1% to +0.4% with a median of +0.3%.  Shelter costs, which represent nearly one third of the consumer price index and tend to increase with a lag, increased 0.6% for the month, down from +0.8% in October and +0.7% in August and September.  Core CPI (excludes food and energy) increased 0.2% compared to October – below expectations of +0.3%.