When the financial crisis and resulting severe recession took place in 2008, we offered that the recovery would be long in duration and reflected in incremental progress along the way. The essential reason for that observation was the knowledge that the recession of 2008 was not a typical business cycle recession, but rather one that […]

I enjoy the interaction that I get with readers of our Greenleaf Trust newsletter each month. The reactions are usually positive and occasionally challenging, especially when we approach the silly season of political campaigns. I changed the title of my monthly article a few years ago from “Economic Update” to “Economic Commentary” because I felt […]

We have been focusing our commentary on a consistent number of indices and surveys over the past six months, to attempt to gain insight into economic trends in place relative to consumption, production, employment, inflation and recessionary trends. This month’s commentary will be more of the same, with perhaps a little deeper dive into some […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares the beginning of a recession well after the actual recession begins. It is always a rear view look and analysis based upon data that is already months old. What we do know is that for the first half of 2022 the US economy contracted from its previous […]

The malaise in current economic conditions seems somewhat omnipresent in most media so it seems the right time to look under the hood and see not only what the current common set of facts are, but also examine what the likely scenarios are for the forward economic cycle. The Weekly Economic Index produced by the […]

Financial press headlines continue to warn of recession and a slowing of the US and global economy, and we will focus on both in this month’s article. Let’s start with the tool that I believe provides a real time pulse rate for our underlying economy: the New York Fed Weekly Economic Index. Although I have […]

The New York Fed revised their May 19 Weekly Economic Indicator reading upward to 4.29%; however, their May 26 initial reading declined to 3.52%, reflecting the trend in place. Simultaneously, the Conference Board, as well as University of Michigan consumer surveys, also mirrored a small, but consistent, decline in consumer sentiment and confidence in short […]

It is always helpful to me to scan popular culture media sources to understand what most consumers are reading, watching and listening to. Of course, the source of what people select to read, watch and listen to shapes much of what they end up believing as fact. Early in my education in economics, I was […]

We are marching incrementally towards the benchmarks that are necessary to reach an immunity level that will restore a good deal of a “new normality” to our daily lives. I intentionally used the term “new normality” as the evidence seems clear that while we are all done with COVID-19, it is also clear that COVID-19 […]

In the summer of 2019, we intended to create an annual series of Perspectives articles updating our audience on the outlook for the Michigan economy. But, as the poet Robert Burns said, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In 2020, tracking the economic and market impact of COVID consumed our […]

For the past twenty-four months and twenty-four newsletter articles, I have led with COVID-19 related data. The reasoning was that our economic recovery would depend upon our progress at defeating the pandemic created by the COVID-19 virus. This month, while the impact of the virus remains with us, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has replaced the […]

Happy New Year to all! I hope that you were able to celebrate the new year with reflective gratitude and the grace of optimism as we look forward to the promise and challenges of 2022. This column is written and published each month just as it has been for the past thirty years. Wow, how […]

The popular culture media would have us believe that we are losing the COVID-19 battle, have lost all momentum in vaccinations, and are falling on economic hard times. It seems that we should test these themes with an examination of facts and raw data. As the sage mechanic might say, “Let’s lift the hood and […]

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has now been joined by Omicron, the latest variant that was first observed in South Africa in recent weeks. As with previous variants of the original virus, Omicron is thought to more easily spread particularly among the unvaccinated populations. As of this writing, the current initial as well as booster […]

This time of year retirement plan providers are gearing up to complete the annual Actual Deferral Percentage (ADP) tests for qualified retirement plans. This test in particular can be very impactful to certain plan participants. This is a non-discrimination test for 401(k) plans mandated by the IRS to ensure that a plan does not unduly […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The news has been dominated lately with the topic of raising the United States’ debt ceiling. It is hard to call the process of doing so, new. In fact, 90 different times in our country’s history Congress has agreed to raise the debt ceiling, which Congress previously established so that the United States doesn’t default […]

The very nature of our business requires that we have a thirst for research and a constant desire to understand whatever is impacting our economic, domestic and geopolitical systems. We always approach that discovery from our clients’ side of the desk. What might our clients be reading or listening to? As a result of their […]

It is now clear that at the current daily average of vaccinations against COVID-19 in the United States, the country will not meet the 70% threshold until early August. The July goal was ambitious and assumed that the early two million per day vaccination rate would hold. The evidence is clear that it did not, […]

The recent surge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 informs us that while we might wish that the pandemic is over, it is not. Let’s set aside the headlines and examine some data to help us determine the state of our current condition. In March of 2020, our research team at Greenleaf Trust adopted the […]

Progress has slowed in our country’s COVID-19 vaccination rate as of late. Data through June 1st reveals that our seven-day average vaccination rate has slipped to 1.6 million, a decline of more than 50% from our previous high of 4.2 million. Unlike early in the vaccination roll-out, the struggle to get our population vaccinated is […]

Resilience has always been an important part of our country’s history. The pathway to our current condition has not been simple or easy, but rather gut-wrenching and somewhat terrifying from time to time. A close examination of our country’s history reveals just how much we have overcome and endured during the past 245 years. Global […]

Progress continues to be made in multiple areas in the battle against COVID-19. Through February 28, over seventy five million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccination against the virus, which is about 23% of the current population. The rate of vaccination currently stands at 1.74 million per day; although it is not […]

2020 will certainly be reflected on as a very unusual year in modern history. Everyone in the United States was aware that we would be in a presidential election year; however, prior to February of 2020 relatively few knew that the COVID-19 Pandemic would insert itself into the lives of nearly everyone in the world, […]

Happy New Year to each of you; we hope 2021 is a fantastic year for you and your family. The year has gotten off to somewhat of a mixed bag. While the much-anticipated vaccine is being manufactured and shipped, the number of those who have actually been vaccinated is far below the initial target and […]

We attempted to defer our publishing deadline until the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was determined, but, as you can surmise, as of November 6th the outcome was not known. At this writing, President Trump has won 214 electoral college votes and must be declared the winner in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and […]

As we have done for the past seven months, we will begin by checking in with the New York Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Indicator (WEI) index that attempts to measure data focused on labor, production and consumption. As much as is humanly possible, the data is real time and designed to measure GDP relative to […]

We now have endured five months of battling the COVID-19 virus and our experience has revealed much about our country and our collective as well as divided political wills. What is our present condition as we approach the sixth month of our battle to defeat the virus? Our economic condition is perhaps the easiest to […]