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In May, U.S. job growth topped all forecasts and the unemployment rate held steady offering a clear indication that the labor market may be firming up after near-zero job growth in 2025. 

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After adjusting for inflation, spending rose 1.1% year-over-year and was down -0.1% month-over-month.

Healthy job gains; unemployment steady.  In April, U.S. employers added 115k jobs and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%.  Today’s report showcases a labor market that appears to be stabilizing after near-zero job growth in 2025.  While demand for workers remains subdued, layoff activity is still low and fiscal policy underpinned by the OBBBA […]

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US retail sales rose more than anticipated in the month of March, exceeding the high bar set in February.

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The key question going forward relates to higher prices’ impact on the Federal Reserve’s easing plans. Today’s release did not significantly change the market’s expectations of only a 20% chance of one cut from the Fed in 2026, compared with expectations for 2 cuts before the war.

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The labor force participation rate and number of unemployed people were little changed, showing some stability in the labor market.  The stronger jobs report provides the Federal Reserve with some breathing room and will allow them to wait and see how the Iran war effects overall inflation before moving forward with any rate cuts.

Following a lengthy winter storm in January, tax refunds and wage growth that is outpacing inflation helped drive a February recovery.  It appears consumer demand was holding up ahead of the Iran war but the conflict has driven gas prices above $4 per gallon, which risks causing shoppers to adjust their spending in other areas if the conflict drags on.   

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The notable increase in energy prices associated with the ongoing war in Iran would not have been captured in this month’s reading; however, March figures may be upwardly biased as a consequence of the elevated energy prices.