The popular culture media would have us believe that we are losing the COVID-19 battle, have lost all momentum in vaccinations, and are falling on economic hard times. It seems that we should test these themes with an examination of facts and raw data. As the sage mechanic might say, “Let’s lift the hood and […]

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has now been joined by Omicron, the latest variant that was first observed in South Africa in recent weeks. As with previous variants of the original virus, Omicron is thought to more easily spread particularly among the unvaccinated populations. As of this writing, the current initial as well as booster […]

This time of year retirement plan providers are gearing up to complete the annual Actual Deferral Percentage (ADP) tests for qualified retirement plans. This test in particular can be very impactful to certain plan participants. This is a non-discrimination test for 401(k) plans mandated by the IRS to ensure that a plan does not unduly […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The news has been dominated lately with the topic of raising the United States’ debt ceiling. It is hard to call the process of doing so, new. In fact, 90 different times in our country’s history Congress has agreed to raise the debt ceiling, which Congress previously established so that the United States doesn’t default […]

The very nature of our business requires that we have a thirst for research and a constant desire to understand whatever is impacting our economic, domestic and geopolitical systems. We always approach that discovery from our clients’ side of the desk. What might our clients be reading or listening to? As a result of their […]

It is now clear that at the current daily average of vaccinations against COVID-19 in the United States, the country will not meet the 70% threshold until early August. The July goal was ambitious and assumed that the early two million per day vaccination rate would hold. The evidence is clear that it did not, […]

The recent surge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 informs us that while we might wish that the pandemic is over, it is not. Let’s set aside the headlines and examine some data to help us determine the state of our current condition. In March of 2020, our research team at Greenleaf Trust adopted the […]

Progress has slowed in our country’s COVID-19 vaccination rate as of late. Data through June 1st reveals that our seven-day average vaccination rate has slipped to 1.6 million, a decline of more than 50% from our previous high of 4.2 million. Unlike early in the vaccination roll-out, the struggle to get our population vaccinated is […]

Progress continues to be made in multiple areas in the battle against COVID-19. Through February 28, over seventy five million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccination against the virus, which is about 23% of the current population. The rate of vaccination currently stands at 1.74 million per day; although it is not […]

Resilience has always been an important part of our country’s history. The pathway to our current condition has not been simple or easy, but rather gut-wrenching and somewhat terrifying from time to time. A close examination of our country’s history reveals just how much we have overcome and endured during the past 245 years. Global […]

2020 will certainly be reflected on as a very unusual year in modern history. Everyone in the United States was aware that we would be in a presidential election year; however, prior to February of 2020 relatively few knew that the COVID-19 Pandemic would insert itself into the lives of nearly everyone in the world, […]

Happy New Year to each of you; we hope 2021 is a fantastic year for you and your family. The year has gotten off to somewhat of a mixed bag. While the much-anticipated vaccine is being manufactured and shipped, the number of those who have actually been vaccinated is far below the initial target and […]

We attempted to defer our publishing deadline until the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was determined, but, as you can surmise, as of November 6th the outcome was not known. At this writing, President Trump has won 214 electoral college votes and must be declared the winner in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and […]

As we have done for the past seven months, we will begin by checking in with the New York Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Indicator (WEI) index that attempts to measure data focused on labor, production and consumption. As much as is humanly possible, the data is real time and designed to measure GDP relative to […]

We now have endured five months of battling the COVID-19 virus and our experience has revealed much about our country and our collective as well as divided political wills. What is our present condition as we approach the sixth month of our battle to defeat the virus? Our economic condition is perhaps the easiest to […]

As we enter our seventh month of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, our current condition appears to be more of the same with conditions changing marginally in some areas. Cases spiked in July and early August and have been trending downward in some regions while remaining stubbornly unchanged in others. As we put […]

Awareness is sometimes a self-inflicted burden. Those of us that research information for a living are bombarded with data that, while informative, can lead to anxiety and increased senses of urgency. The greater experience that you have researching information, the more likely you will discover that the majority of people are living their lives in […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

“Opening the economy” is the phrase that seems to be taking up much of the oxygen lately, so let’s spend some time digging into exactly what that phrase means and how we might observe progress in the future growth of our economy. In essence, we want to put some data and facts into the equation […]

I think we can all agree that the crisis we find ourselves in does not come with a step-by-step instruction book of solutions. The way out is complicated, includes self-sacrifice, social order of the highest degree, individual and societal self-discipline and the abandonment of political self-interests. You may observe this list of requirements and say, […]

At this writing, there are six states that have announced the phased reopening of their economies, or what perhaps is better stated as a beginning of reducing previous requirements to stay-at-home that were ordered by the respective governors of those states. These are in addition to the few states that never had stay-at-home executive orders […]

We all run across quotes from a variety of sources during the course of our lives. Some of those quotes stick with us for any number of personal reasons. Close to twenty years ago a person who I think is a really talented behavioral scientist said “Big people share and little people keep secrets.” I […]

Recently, I had the opportunity to speak to two different groups of educational leaders about the implications of artificial intelligence on employment and global economies, principals and superintendents of K–12 systems as well as leadership in post-secondary community college systems. I was able to share with them some relevant information produced by the global consulting […]

As you can imagine, recent events such as the US drone attack that killed a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani, in Iraq has caused many questions from clients and readers of our newsletter. Nick Juhle and his research team have offered their perspectives and advice with respect to the economic and investment implications of […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a recent speech titled “Building on the gains from the long expansion.” Within the speech, Powell focused on two important themes: maintaining a stable and reliable pace of two percent inflation and, somewhat surprisingly, spreading the benefits of employment more widely. Part of the Fed’s stated mandate has always been […]

As you can imagine, recent events such as the US drone attack that killed a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani, in Iraq has caused many questions from clients and readers of our newsletter. Nick Juhle and his research team have offered their perspectives and advice with respect to the economic and investment implications of […]

Real US economic activity data reveals a continued mixed picture with strength in consumer spending and recession-like weakness in manufacturing. Consumer confidence surveys, both U of M as well as the Conference Board, are weaker and reflect growing concerns and uncertainties in global and domestic sustainability. The concerns seem to be focused on geopolitical hot […]

The connection between “Wall Street” and “Main Street” is always up for debate, as is the seemingly different focus between those inside the beltway and those who reside, live and work outside of the beltway. Media is driven by advertising revenue, which is highly correlated to viewership and subscription, whether that media be electronic, digital, […]