March Retail Sales - Continued Strength

US retail sales rose more than anticipated in the month of March, exceeding the high bar set in February. In nominal terms retail spending was up 4% year-over-year and 1.7% compared to February. After adjusting for inflation, spending rose 1.6% year-over-year and 1.4% month-over-month. Tax refunds and spending at gasoline stations drove the large increase in spending, however concern exists on whether the one-time stimulus from tax refunds can continue to buoy spending in the coming periods.

• Real (inflation adjusted) retail sales rose 1.6% year-over-year.  In March, retail sales grew 4% nominally netting real growth of 1.6% after adjusting for 2.4% inflation.  Higher spending at gasoline stations (+18.1%), brick-and-mortar retailers (+9.8%), and online (+10.1%) contributed to the strong month’s spending.  Eight of thirteen categories advanced in real terms.
• Real (inflation adjusted) retail sales rose 1.4% month-over-month.  In March, nominal retail sales levels increased 1.7% compared to February netting real growth of 1.4% after adjusting for 0.3% inflation.  Growth was driven by stronger spending at gasoline stations (+15.5%),  and online (+1%).  Nine of thirteen categories advanced in real terms.