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When the financial crisis and resulting severe recession took place in 2008, we offered that the recovery would be long in duration and reflected in incremental progress along the way. The essential reason for that observation was the knowledge that the recession of 2008 was not a typical business cycle recession, but rather one that […]

With market volatility persisting throughout the year, investors have become more interested in alternative investments. Some of these investments, such as hedge funds, private equity, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and others incur large income distributions. For those in the top tax bracket that can mean income taxes near 45%, whether or not that income […]

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It’s almost Halloween, and there are spooky things everywhere you look. Though this time of year is often intentionally scary, don’t let fear control you, especially when it comes to your finances. Sometimes fear of what’s waiting around the corner, or the big scary unknown, can stop us dead in our tracks and keep us […]

The Department of Labor’s Electronic Disclosure Rule has simplified the delivery of retirement plan information to participants. This rule allows retirement plan administrators to satisfy their information disclosure requirements under ERISA (The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974) by making required notices and disclosures available to employees electronically under a “notice-and-access” method. The new […]

Participating in an Ironman race requires months, if not years, of rigorous training, discipline and mental dexterity. Preparation is not limited to purely triathlon training, but crosses over into the efficiency of navigating the transition zones (from swimming to biking, and from biking to running). Successful triathlon participants train their bodies to perform these transition […]

Current economic data and news seems mostly positive, and yet there are those who are uneasy about the near-term future and seem increasingly convinced that a recession is not far off. Why is there seemingly a disconnect between the current condition and what lies ahead of us? In this month’s article, we will try to […]

This article continues our annual summer tradition of evaluating the health of the Michigan economy. In this article, we will cover (1) the labor market, (2) the auto industry, and (3) home prices. Last year, we wrote about the robust recovery underway in the labor market, projected stability in the auto industry, and accelerating home […]

I think we can all agree that the crisis we find ourselves in does not come with a step-by-step instruction book of solutions. The way out is complicated, includes self-sacrifice, social order of the highest degree, individual and societal self-discipline and the abandonment of political self-interests. You may observe this list of requirements and say, […]

We all run across quotes from a variety of sources during the course of our lives. Some of those quotes stick with us for any number of personal reasons. Close to twenty years ago a person who I think is a really talented behavioral scientist said “Big people share and little people keep secrets.” I […]

During the month of January, our team at Greenleaf Trust traveled throughout our geographical markets presenting our 2019 Year in Review and 2020 forecast for the economy and financial markets. It was my privilege to join Nick Juhle, our senior vice president and director of research, as well as Chris Burns, a senior fixed income […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a recent speech titled “Building on the gains from the long expansion.” Within the speech, Powell focused on two important themes: maintaining a stable and reliable pace of two percent inflation and, somewhat surprisingly, spreading the benefits of employment more widely. Part of the Fed’s stated mandate has always been […]

When the financial crisis and resulting severe recession took place in 2008, we offered that the recovery would be long in duration and reflected in incremental progress along the way. The essential reason for that observation was the knowledge that the recession of 2008 was not a typical business cycle recession, but rather one that […]

I enjoy the interaction that I get with readers of our Greenleaf Trust newsletter each month. The reactions are usually positive and occasionally challenging, especially when we approach the silly season of political campaigns. I changed the title of my monthly article a few years ago from “Economic Update” to “Economic Commentary” because I felt […]

We have been focusing our commentary on a consistent number of indices and surveys over the past six months, to attempt to gain insight into economic trends in place relative to consumption, production, employment, inflation and recessionary trends. This month’s commentary will be more of the same, with perhaps a little deeper dive into some […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares the beginning of a recession well after the actual recession begins. It is always a rear view look and analysis based upon data that is already months old. What we do know is that for the first half of 2022 the US economy contracted from its previous […]

The malaise in current economic conditions seems somewhat omnipresent in most media so it seems the right time to look under the hood and see not only what the current common set of facts are, but also examine what the likely scenarios are for the forward economic cycle. The Weekly Economic Index produced by the […]

Financial press headlines continue to warn of recession and a slowing of the US and global economy, and we will focus on both in this month’s article. Let’s start with the tool that I believe provides a real time pulse rate for our underlying economy: the New York Fed Weekly Economic Index. Although I have […]

The New York Fed revised their May 19 Weekly Economic Indicator reading upward to 4.29%; however, their May 26 initial reading declined to 3.52%, reflecting the trend in place. Simultaneously, the Conference Board, as well as University of Michigan consumer surveys, also mirrored a small, but consistent, decline in consumer sentiment and confidence in short […]

It is always helpful to me to scan popular culture media sources to understand what most consumers are reading, watching and listening to. Of course, the source of what people select to read, watch and listen to shapes much of what they end up believing as fact. Early in my education in economics, I was […]

We are marching incrementally towards the benchmarks that are necessary to reach an immunity level that will restore a good deal of a “new normality” to our daily lives. I intentionally used the term “new normality” as the evidence seems clear that while we are all done with COVID-19, it is also clear that COVID-19 […]

In the summer of 2019, we intended to create an annual series of Perspectives articles updating our audience on the outlook for the Michigan economy. But, as the poet Robert Burns said, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In 2020, tracking the economic and market impact of COVID consumed our […]

For the past twenty-four months and twenty-four newsletter articles, I have led with COVID-19 related data. The reasoning was that our economic recovery would depend upon our progress at defeating the pandemic created by the COVID-19 virus. This month, while the impact of the virus remains with us, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has replaced the […]

Happy New Year to all! I hope that you were able to celebrate the new year with reflective gratitude and the grace of optimism as we look forward to the promise and challenges of 2022. This column is written and published each month just as it has been for the past thirty years. Wow, how […]

The popular culture media would have us believe that we are losing the COVID-19 battle, have lost all momentum in vaccinations, and are falling on economic hard times. It seems that we should test these themes with an examination of facts and raw data. As the sage mechanic might say, “Let’s lift the hood and […]

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has now been joined by Omicron, the latest variant that was first observed in South Africa in recent weeks. As with previous variants of the original virus, Omicron is thought to more easily spread particularly among the unvaccinated populations. As of this writing, the current initial as well as booster […]