Following extremely robust market returns in 2021, and new all-time highs the first week of this year, 2022 has proven to be a challenging year for investors to date. While up from its mid-October lows, the S&P 500 index registered an intra-year drawdown of approximately 25%, while the aggregate bond market didn’t fare much better […]

Receiving an award can be quite gratifying especially if it validates your hard work on something you are passionate about. We are passionate about and work hard on our culture. The culture at Greenleaf Trust is an expression of our core values and a big part of what differentiates us in the marketplace. Beginning in […]

Russia and Ukraine are significant producers of crude oil and natural gas commodities essential to the energy industry. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused significant disruptions in these energy sources, particularly for Europe. With winter around the corner, now is an appropriate time to provide a primer on the situation. This article will focus […]

Often an individual will say that they are too old to engage in a Roth IRA conversion. Their fear is that the tax-free benefits of owning a Roth IRA with a shortened life expectancy will be outweighed by the up-front income tax cost that comes with the Roth conversion. The reality is that an individual […]

Although the majority of private sector qualified retirement plans are now defined contribution (DC) type plans (i.e. 401(k), 403(b), profit sharing etc.), there are still some legacy defined benefit (DB) pension plans being maintained by employers. It has long been known that these pension plans can become a runaway train of costs and corporate liabilities […]

Over the past decade, we have become accustomed to a low interest rate environment which has favored certain estate planning techniques and wealth transfer strategies. A number of these strategies use interest rates which are published monthly by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS); the Applicable Federal Rate (AFR) reflects the minimum interest rate that the […]

When Congress enacted the SECURE Act in 2019, one of the noteworthy changes related to the period over which beneficiaries were required to take IRA distributions. Before the SECURE Act, beneficiaries of inherited IRAs could “stretch” the required minimum distributions (RMDs) over their entire life expectancies. The stretch period could be decades for younger beneficiaries, […]

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When the financial crisis and resulting severe recession took place in 2008, we offered that the recovery would be long in duration and reflected in incremental progress along the way. The essential reason for that observation was the knowledge that the recession of 2008 was not a typical business cycle recession, but rather one that […]

With market volatility persisting throughout the year, investors have become more interested in alternative investments. Some of these investments, such as hedge funds, private equity, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and others incur large income distributions. For those in the top tax bracket that can mean income taxes near 45%, whether or not that income […]

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It’s almost Halloween, and there are spooky things everywhere you look. Though this time of year is often intentionally scary, don’t let fear control you, especially when it comes to your finances. Sometimes fear of what’s waiting around the corner, or the big scary unknown, can stop us dead in our tracks and keep us […]

The Department of Labor’s Electronic Disclosure Rule has simplified the delivery of retirement plan information to participants. This rule allows retirement plan administrators to satisfy their information disclosure requirements under ERISA (The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974) by making required notices and disclosures available to employees electronically under a “notice-and-access” method. The new […]

Participating in an Ironman race requires months, if not years, of rigorous training, discipline and mental dexterity. Preparation is not limited to purely triathlon training, but crosses over into the efficiency of navigating the transition zones (from swimming to biking, and from biking to running). Successful triathlon participants train their bodies to perform these transition […]

Current economic data and news seems mostly positive, and yet there are those who are uneasy about the near-term future and seem increasingly convinced that a recession is not far off. Why is there seemingly a disconnect between the current condition and what lies ahead of us? In this month’s article, we will try to […]

This article continues our annual summer tradition of evaluating the health of the Michigan economy. In this article, we will cover (1) the labor market, (2) the auto industry, and (3) home prices. Last year, we wrote about the robust recovery underway in the labor market, projected stability in the auto industry, and accelerating home […]

I think we can all agree that the crisis we find ourselves in does not come with a step-by-step instruction book of solutions. The way out is complicated, includes self-sacrifice, social order of the highest degree, individual and societal self-discipline and the abandonment of political self-interests. You may observe this list of requirements and say, […]

We all run across quotes from a variety of sources during the course of our lives. Some of those quotes stick with us for any number of personal reasons. Close to twenty years ago a person who I think is a really talented behavioral scientist said “Big people share and little people keep secrets.” I […]

During the month of January, our team at Greenleaf Trust traveled throughout our geographical markets presenting our 2019 Year in Review and 2020 forecast for the economy and financial markets. It was my privilege to join Nick Juhle, our senior vice president and director of research, as well as Chris Burns, a senior fixed income […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a recent speech titled “Building on the gains from the long expansion.” Within the speech, Powell focused on two important themes: maintaining a stable and reliable pace of two percent inflation and, somewhat surprisingly, spreading the benefits of employment more widely. Part of the Fed’s stated mandate has always been […]

When the financial crisis and resulting severe recession took place in 2008, we offered that the recovery would be long in duration and reflected in incremental progress along the way. The essential reason for that observation was the knowledge that the recession of 2008 was not a typical business cycle recession, but rather one that […]

I enjoy the interaction that I get with readers of our Greenleaf Trust newsletter each month. The reactions are usually positive and occasionally challenging, especially when we approach the silly season of political campaigns. I changed the title of my monthly article a few years ago from “Economic Update” to “Economic Commentary” because I felt […]

We have been focusing our commentary on a consistent number of indices and surveys over the past six months, to attempt to gain insight into economic trends in place relative to consumption, production, employment, inflation and recessionary trends. This month’s commentary will be more of the same, with perhaps a little deeper dive into some […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares the beginning of a recession well after the actual recession begins. It is always a rear view look and analysis based upon data that is already months old. What we do know is that for the first half of 2022 the US economy contracted from its previous […]

The malaise in current economic conditions seems somewhat omnipresent in most media so it seems the right time to look under the hood and see not only what the current common set of facts are, but also examine what the likely scenarios are for the forward economic cycle. The Weekly Economic Index produced by the […]

Financial press headlines continue to warn of recession and a slowing of the US and global economy, and we will focus on both in this month’s article. Let’s start with the tool that I believe provides a real time pulse rate for our underlying economy: the New York Fed Weekly Economic Index. Although I have […]

The New York Fed revised their May 19 Weekly Economic Indicator reading upward to 4.29%; however, their May 26 initial reading declined to 3.52%, reflecting the trend in place. Simultaneously, the Conference Board, as well as University of Michigan consumer surveys, also mirrored a small, but consistent, decline in consumer sentiment and confidence in short […]

It is always helpful to me to scan popular culture media sources to understand what most consumers are reading, watching and listening to. Of course, the source of what people select to read, watch and listen to shapes much of what they end up believing as fact. Early in my education in economics, I was […]

We are marching incrementally towards the benchmarks that are necessary to reach an immunity level that will restore a good deal of a “new normality” to our daily lives. I intentionally used the term “new normality” as the evidence seems clear that while we are all done with COVID-19, it is also clear that COVID-19 […]

In the summer of 2019, we intended to create an annual series of Perspectives articles updating our audience on the outlook for the Michigan economy. But, as the poet Robert Burns said, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In 2020, tracking the economic and market impact of COVID consumed our […]

For the past twenty-four months and twenty-four newsletter articles, I have led with COVID-19 related data. The reasoning was that our economic recovery would depend upon our progress at defeating the pandemic created by the COVID-19 virus. This month, while the impact of the virus remains with us, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has replaced the […]

Happy New Year to all! I hope that you were able to celebrate the new year with reflective gratitude and the grace of optimism as we look forward to the promise and challenges of 2022. This column is written and published each month just as it has been for the past thirty years. Wow, how […]

The popular culture media would have us believe that we are losing the COVID-19 battle, have lost all momentum in vaccinations, and are falling on economic hard times. It seems that we should test these themes with an examination of facts and raw data. As the sage mechanic might say, “Let’s lift the hood and […]

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has now been joined by Omicron, the latest variant that was first observed in South Africa in recent weeks. As with previous variants of the original virus, Omicron is thought to more easily spread particularly among the unvaccinated populations. As of this writing, the current initial as well as booster […]

This time of year retirement plan providers are gearing up to complete the annual Actual Deferral Percentage (ADP) tests for qualified retirement plans. This test in particular can be very impactful to certain plan participants. This is a non-discrimination test for 401(k) plans mandated by the IRS to ensure that a plan does not unduly […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The news has been dominated lately with the topic of raising the United States’ debt ceiling. It is hard to call the process of doing so, new. In fact, 90 different times in our country’s history Congress has agreed to raise the debt ceiling, which Congress previously established so that the United States doesn’t default […]

The very nature of our business requires that we have a thirst for research and a constant desire to understand whatever is impacting our economic, domestic and geopolitical systems. We always approach that discovery from our clients’ side of the desk. What might our clients be reading or listening to? As a result of their […]

It is now clear that at the current daily average of vaccinations against COVID-19 in the United States, the country will not meet the 70% threshold until early August. The July goal was ambitious and assumed that the early two million per day vaccination rate would hold. The evidence is clear that it did not, […]

The recent surge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 informs us that while we might wish that the pandemic is over, it is not. Let’s set aside the headlines and examine some data to help us determine the state of our current condition. In March of 2020, our research team at Greenleaf Trust adopted the […]

Progress has slowed in our country’s COVID-19 vaccination rate as of late. Data through June 1st reveals that our seven-day average vaccination rate has slipped to 1.6 million, a decline of more than 50% from our previous high of 4.2 million. Unlike early in the vaccination roll-out, the struggle to get our population vaccinated is […]

Resilience has always been an important part of our country’s history. The pathway to our current condition has not been simple or easy, but rather gut-wrenching and somewhat terrifying from time to time. A close examination of our country’s history reveals just how much we have overcome and endured during the past 245 years. Global […]

Progress continues to be made in multiple areas in the battle against COVID-19. Through February 28, over seventy five million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccination against the virus, which is about 23% of the current population. The rate of vaccination currently stands at 1.74 million per day; although it is not […]

2020 will certainly be reflected on as a very unusual year in modern history. Everyone in the United States was aware that we would be in a presidential election year; however, prior to February of 2020 relatively few knew that the COVID-19 Pandemic would insert itself into the lives of nearly everyone in the world, […]

Happy New Year to each of you; we hope 2021 is a fantastic year for you and your family. The year has gotten off to somewhat of a mixed bag. While the much-anticipated vaccine is being manufactured and shipped, the number of those who have actually been vaccinated is far below the initial target and […]

We attempted to defer our publishing deadline until the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was determined, but, as you can surmise, as of November 6th the outcome was not known. At this writing, President Trump has won 214 electoral college votes and must be declared the winner in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and […]

As we have done for the past seven months, we will begin by checking in with the New York Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Indicator (WEI) index that attempts to measure data focused on labor, production and consumption. As much as is humanly possible, the data is real time and designed to measure GDP relative to […]