In September, consumer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month down from +0.4% in August and below expectations for the same. Core CPI (excludes food and energy) increased 0.2% month-over-month, down from +0.3% in August and below expectations for the same.

Following somewhat dampened sentiment in the first half of the year, which was plagued by tariff uncertainty, consumer spending has ramped back up in recent months.

Against a backdrop of tariff concerns and trade policy uncertainty, today’s report was largely in line with expectations, showcasing gradually rising inflation.

US job growth cooled sharply over the last three months. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22K in August (vs. consensus of +75K) and the jobless rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2% a month earlier – fanning concerns of ongoing labor market deterioration following July’s unexpected weakness.

The broad advance implies a healthy start to consumer spending in the second half of the year after uncertainty around trade policy dampened sentiment in the first half. 

Overall, today’s report came in lighter-than-expected against a backdrop of tariff concerns and trade policy uncertainty.  Following a surprisingly weak July jobs report released on August 1, investors have ratcheted up bets on a rate cut following the Fed’s next meeting in September.

Earlier this week, Fed officials kept interest rates unchanged in a split decision noting ongoing inflationary risks related to tariff policy and a labor market that remained solid. Following today’s report, investors solidified expectations for two quarter point cuts later this year and raised 2026 expectations to five cuts from four to five cuts previously.

In nominal terms, U.S. retail sales advanced 3.9% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month. Adjusting for inflation, spending advanced 1.2% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month. The broad advance led by healthy increases on motor vehicles and restaurants likely tempers concerns about a consumer slowdown. That said, the June report likely reflects normalization as opposed to a notable uptick. […]

In May, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.7% compared to a year ago, up from 2.4% in May and above expectations for +2.6%. Core CPI (excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 2.9%, in line with forecasts, but up from 2.8% in May.

The U.S. labor market added 147k jobs in June approximating an upwardly revised +144K in May and topping expectations for +106K. The U.S. unemployment rate declined 0.1% to 4.1% in June.  The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024.

In nominal terms, U.S. retail sales advanced 3.3% year-over-year and declined 0.9% month-over-month. Adjusting for inflation, spending advanced 0.9% year-over-year and retreated 1.0% month-over-month. In March and April, consumers rushed to make big-ticket purchases in an effort to get out ahead of potential tariffs.

In May, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.4% compared to a year ago, up from 2.3% in April but in line with expectations.  Core CPI (excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 2.8%, consistent with the April result but below forecasts for 2.9%. 

May hiring exceeds expectations, trade policy uncertainty remains.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 139K in May (vs. consensus of +126K) after a combined 95K in downward revisions to the prior two months.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

In nominal terms, U.S. retail sales advanced 0.1% month-over-month and 5.2% year-over-year.  Adjusting for inflation, spending retreated 0.1% month-over-month but increased 2.9% year-over-year.  Following two months of moderating outlays to start the year, April numbers suggest consumers continued the March trend of elevated spending on cars and other high-ticket items in an effort to lock in prices amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. 

In April, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.3% compared to a year ago, down from 2.4% in March and below expectations for the same.  Core CPI (excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 2.8%, consistent with the March result and in line with forecasts.

April hiring exceeds expectations, but trade policy uncertainty remains. Nonfarm payrolls increased 177K in April following a (downwardly revised) gain of +185 in March. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

In nominal terms, U.S. retail sales jumped 1.4% month-over-month and 4.6% year-over-year – the most in over two years.  Adjusting for inflation, spending advanced 1.5% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year.

In March, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.4% compared to a year ago, down from 2.8% in February and below expectations for 2.6%. Core CPI (excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 2.8%, down from 3.1% in February and 0.2% below forecasts.  Today’s report indicates a continued degree of relief after months of stalling progress on inflation, however, it does not fully reflect the price increases that may result from recently announced tariffs. 

March hiring exceeds expectations, but tariff impacts are yet to be seen.

In nominal terms, U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in February, below forecast, and January data was revised to a 1.2% decline (compared to -0.9% originally reported).  Adjusting for inflation, U.S. retail spending was unchanged month-over-month, but advanced 0.3% year-over-year.  Today’s report adds to evidence that consumer spending is moderating amid tariff uncertainty and ongoing inflationary pressures.

In February, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.8% compared to a year ago, down from 3.0% in January and below expectations for 2.9%. Core CPI (excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 3.1%, down from 3.3% in January and 0.1% below forecasts.

February hiring rises at solid pace; unemployment edged higher.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 151K in February following a (downwardly revised) gain of +125K in January.

U.S. retail sales came in mixed in January. The economy experienced healthy year-over-year growth but suffered a larger than anticipated monthly decline.

In January, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 3.0% compared to a year ago, up from 2.9% in December and above expectations for the same.

January job gains below expectations, but solid. Nonfarm payrolls increased 143K in January following a (revised) gain of +307K in December and the unemployment rate is 4.0% to start the year.

U.S. retail sales broadly advanced in December indicating a healthy end to the holiday shopping season.  Entering 2025, the labor market and consumers appear to be on solid footing.

In December, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.9% compared to a year ago, up from 2.7% in November and in line with expectations.

December job gains advanced by the most since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, capping another year of resilience for the labor market.

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U.S. retail sales accelerated and rose more than expected in November. Strong auto sales and a jump in e-commerce owing to healthy Black Friday and Cyber Monday receipts suggests consumers remain resilient during the crucial holiday shopping season. Retail spending, unadjusted for inflation, rose 0.7% topping expectations for 0.6%.

The U.S. job market rebounded from an anemic October clouded by strikes and storms.

U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in October and September figures were revised higher suggesting consumers are entering the start of holiday season with strong momentum. 

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U.S. retail sales rose more than expected September in a broad advance highlighting resilient consumer spending in the third quarter.

In September, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose 2.4% compared to a year ago, decelerating 0.1% compared to August, but above expectations for 2.3%.

Job gains came in stronger than anticipated; unemployment rate falls slightly; revisions to prior months’ data were positive.  The US economy added far more jobs than analysts anticipated in September, in what is the strongest job growth figure since March of this year.  Overall, the report lends credence to the prospect of a soft landing […]

In August, consumer prices as measured by CPI, rose just 2.5% compared to a year ago, decelerating 0.4% compared to July and in line with expectations.

Hiring improved from July’s weak report but missed expectations in August as wage growth rebounded slightly and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%.

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July retail spending accelerated by more than expected compared to June in a broad advance aided somewhat by a recovery in auto sales after a cyberattack on dealerships led to a sizeable drop last month.

In July, consumer prices rose 2.9% compared to a year ago, decelerating 0.1% compared to June and below expectations of 3.0%.

The U.S. stock market is approaching correction territory – a decline of 10% of more from a recent peak.

The July jobs report is fueling a risk-off trade with stocks set to open 1.5-2.5% lower and the 10 year treasury yield falling 10-15 bps.

Today’s report contradicts a recent trend pointing to gradual erosion of consumer strength, suggesting the economy’s main driver is holding up better than expected as inflation recedes and Fed policymakers consider rate cuts.

In June, consumer prices rose 3.0% compared to a year ago, down 0.3% compared to May and below expectations of 3.1%. This marks the third consecutive month of deceleration and another positive sign for Fed policymakers.

Hiring and wage growth decelerated in June and the unemployment rate ticked up adding support to the case for interest rate cuts in the coming months.

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U.S. retail sales barely changed in May and prior months were revised lower, pointing to ongoing erosion of consumer strength.

In May, consumer prices rose 3.3% compared to a year ago, down 0.1% compared to April and below expectations. This marks the second consecutive month of deceleration – a positive sign for Fed policymakers.