During the month of January, our team at Greenleaf Trust traveled throughout our geographical markets presenting our 2019 Year in Review and 2020 forecast for the economy and financial markets. It was my privilege to join Nick Juhle, our senior vice president and director of research, as well as Chris Burns, a senior fixed income […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a recent speech titled “Building on the gains from the long expansion.” Within the speech, Powell focused on two important themes: maintaining a stable and reliable pace of two percent inflation and, somewhat surprisingly, spreading the benefits of employment more widely. Part of the Fed’s stated mandate has always been […]

When the financial crisis and resulting severe recession took place in 2008, we offered that the recovery would be long in duration and reflected in incremental progress along the way. The essential reason for that observation was the knowledge that the recession of 2008 was not a typical business cycle recession, but rather one that […]

I enjoy the interaction that I get with readers of our Greenleaf Trust newsletter each month. The reactions are usually positive and occasionally challenging, especially when we approach the silly season of political campaigns. I changed the title of my monthly article a few years ago from “Economic Update” to “Economic Commentary” because I felt […]

We have been focusing our commentary on a consistent number of indices and surveys over the past six months, to attempt to gain insight into economic trends in place relative to consumption, production, employment, inflation and recessionary trends. This month’s commentary will be more of the same, with perhaps a little deeper dive into some […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The National Bureau of Economic Research officially declares the beginning of a recession well after the actual recession begins. It is always a rear view look and analysis based upon data that is already months old. What we do know is that for the first half of 2022 the US economy contracted from its previous […]

The malaise in current economic conditions seems somewhat omnipresent in most media so it seems the right time to look under the hood and see not only what the current common set of facts are, but also examine what the likely scenarios are for the forward economic cycle. The Weekly Economic Index produced by the […]

Financial press headlines continue to warn of recession and a slowing of the US and global economy, and we will focus on both in this month’s article. Let’s start with the tool that I believe provides a real time pulse rate for our underlying economy: the New York Fed Weekly Economic Index. Although I have […]

The New York Fed revised their May 19 Weekly Economic Indicator reading upward to 4.29%; however, their May 26 initial reading declined to 3.52%, reflecting the trend in place. Simultaneously, the Conference Board, as well as University of Michigan consumer surveys, also mirrored a small, but consistent, decline in consumer sentiment and confidence in short […]

It is always helpful to me to scan popular culture media sources to understand what most consumers are reading, watching and listening to. Of course, the source of what people select to read, watch and listen to shapes much of what they end up believing as fact. Early in my education in economics, I was […]

We are marching incrementally towards the benchmarks that are necessary to reach an immunity level that will restore a good deal of a “new normality” to our daily lives. I intentionally used the term “new normality” as the evidence seems clear that while we are all done with COVID-19, it is also clear that COVID-19 […]

In the summer of 2019, we intended to create an annual series of Perspectives articles updating our audience on the outlook for the Michigan economy. But, as the poet Robert Burns said, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. In 2020, tracking the economic and market impact of COVID consumed our […]

For the past twenty-four months and twenty-four newsletter articles, I have led with COVID-19 related data. The reasoning was that our economic recovery would depend upon our progress at defeating the pandemic created by the COVID-19 virus. This month, while the impact of the virus remains with us, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has replaced the […]

Happy New Year to all! I hope that you were able to celebrate the new year with reflective gratitude and the grace of optimism as we look forward to the promise and challenges of 2022. This column is written and published each month just as it has been for the past thirty years. Wow, how […]

The popular culture media would have us believe that we are losing the COVID-19 battle, have lost all momentum in vaccinations, and are falling on economic hard times. It seems that we should test these themes with an examination of facts and raw data. As the sage mechanic might say, “Let’s lift the hood and […]

The Delta variant of COVID-19 has now been joined by Omicron, the latest variant that was first observed in South Africa in recent weeks. As with previous variants of the original virus, Omicron is thought to more easily spread particularly among the unvaccinated populations. As of this writing, the current initial as well as booster […]

This time of year retirement plan providers are gearing up to complete the annual Actual Deferral Percentage (ADP) tests for qualified retirement plans. This test in particular can be very impactful to certain plan participants. This is a non-discrimination test for 401(k) plans mandated by the IRS to ensure that a plan does not unduly […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

The news has been dominated lately with the topic of raising the United States’ debt ceiling. It is hard to call the process of doing so, new. In fact, 90 different times in our country’s history Congress has agreed to raise the debt ceiling, which Congress previously established so that the United States doesn’t default […]

The very nature of our business requires that we have a thirst for research and a constant desire to understand whatever is impacting our economic, domestic and geopolitical systems. We always approach that discovery from our clients’ side of the desk. What might our clients be reading or listening to? As a result of their […]

It is now clear that at the current daily average of vaccinations against COVID-19 in the United States, the country will not meet the 70% threshold until early August. The July goal was ambitious and assumed that the early two million per day vaccination rate would hold. The evidence is clear that it did not, […]

The recent surge in the Delta variant of COVID-19 informs us that while we might wish that the pandemic is over, it is not. Let’s set aside the headlines and examine some data to help us determine the state of our current condition. In March of 2020, our research team at Greenleaf Trust adopted the […]

Progress has slowed in our country’s COVID-19 vaccination rate as of late. Data through June 1st reveals that our seven-day average vaccination rate has slipped to 1.6 million, a decline of more than 50% from our previous high of 4.2 million. Unlike early in the vaccination roll-out, the struggle to get our population vaccinated is […]

Resilience has always been an important part of our country’s history. The pathway to our current condition has not been simple or easy, but rather gut-wrenching and somewhat terrifying from time to time. A close examination of our country’s history reveals just how much we have overcome and endured during the past 245 years. Global […]

Progress continues to be made in multiple areas in the battle against COVID-19. Through February 28, over seventy five million Americans have received at least one dose of vaccination against the virus, which is about 23% of the current population. The rate of vaccination currently stands at 1.74 million per day; although it is not […]

2020 will certainly be reflected on as a very unusual year in modern history. Everyone in the United States was aware that we would be in a presidential election year; however, prior to February of 2020 relatively few knew that the COVID-19 Pandemic would insert itself into the lives of nearly everyone in the world, […]

Happy New Year to each of you; we hope 2021 is a fantastic year for you and your family. The year has gotten off to somewhat of a mixed bag. While the much-anticipated vaccine is being manufactured and shipped, the number of those who have actually been vaccinated is far below the initial target and […]

We attempted to defer our publishing deadline until the outcome of the 2020 presidential election was determined, but, as you can surmise, as of November 6th the outcome was not known. At this writing, President Trump has won 214 electoral college votes and must be declared the winner in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and […]

As we have done for the past seven months, we will begin by checking in with the New York Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Indicator (WEI) index that attempts to measure data focused on labor, production and consumption. As much as is humanly possible, the data is real time and designed to measure GDP relative to […]

We now have endured five months of battling the COVID-19 virus and our experience has revealed much about our country and our collective as well as divided political wills. What is our present condition as we approach the sixth month of our battle to defeat the virus? Our economic condition is perhaps the easiest to […]

As we enter our seventh month of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, our current condition appears to be more of the same with conditions changing marginally in some areas. Cases spiked in July and early August and have been trending downward in some regions while remaining stubbornly unchanged in others. As we put […]

Awareness is sometimes a self-inflicted burden. Those of us that research information for a living are bombarded with data that, while informative, can lead to anxiety and increased senses of urgency. The greater experience that you have researching information, the more likely you will discover that the majority of people are living their lives in […]

Continuous improvement is one of Greenleaf Trust’s core values – it is a pillar of our culture and has become part of our DNA. Every tangible improvement we have made on behalf of our clients stems from a disciplined review of our practices. As we look for opportunities to serve our clients better, we begin […]

“Opening the economy” is the phrase that seems to be taking up much of the oxygen lately, so let’s spend some time digging into exactly what that phrase means and how we might observe progress in the future growth of our economy. In essence, we want to put some data and facts into the equation […]

I think we can all agree that the crisis we find ourselves in does not come with a step-by-step instruction book of solutions. The way out is complicated, includes self-sacrifice, social order of the highest degree, individual and societal self-discipline and the abandonment of political self-interests. You may observe this list of requirements and say, […]

At this writing, there are six states that have announced the phased reopening of their economies, or what perhaps is better stated as a beginning of reducing previous requirements to stay-at-home that were ordered by the respective governors of those states. These are in addition to the few states that never had stay-at-home executive orders […]

We all run across quotes from a variety of sources during the course of our lives. Some of those quotes stick with us for any number of personal reasons. Close to twenty years ago a person who I think is a really talented behavioral scientist said “Big people share and little people keep secrets.” I […]

Recently, I had the opportunity to speak to two different groups of educational leaders about the implications of artificial intelligence on employment and global economies, principals and superintendents of K–12 systems as well as leadership in post-secondary community college systems. I was able to share with them some relevant information produced by the global consulting […]

As you can imagine, recent events such as the US drone attack that killed a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani, in Iraq has caused many questions from clients and readers of our newsletter. Nick Juhle and his research team have offered their perspectives and advice with respect to the economic and investment implications of […]

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a recent speech titled “Building on the gains from the long expansion.” Within the speech, Powell focused on two important themes: maintaining a stable and reliable pace of two percent inflation and, somewhat surprisingly, spreading the benefits of employment more widely. Part of the Fed’s stated mandate has always been […]

As you can imagine, recent events such as the US drone attack that killed a top Iranian military commander, Qassem Soleimani, in Iraq has caused many questions from clients and readers of our newsletter. Nick Juhle and his research team have offered their perspectives and advice with respect to the economic and investment implications of […]

Real US economic activity data reveals a continued mixed picture with strength in consumer spending and recession-like weakness in manufacturing. Consumer confidence surveys, both U of M as well as the Conference Board, are weaker and reflect growing concerns and uncertainties in global and domestic sustainability. The concerns seem to be focused on geopolitical hot […]

The connection between “Wall Street” and “Main Street” is always up for debate, as is the seemingly different focus between those inside the beltway and those who reside, live and work outside of the beltway. Media is driven by advertising revenue, which is highly correlated to viewership and subscription, whether that media be electronic, digital, […]

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The year 2022 has kept us on our toes. Stock market volatility, inflation, and world turmoil have led the way. However, among all the noise, there have been some highlights that are worth exploring. One catching our attention: Series I Savings bonds. But are they worth the hype? Since February 2022, nearly $11 billion in […]

My husband tells me that to do any job right, you need the right tools. He practices what he preaches because we have a garage full of tools for any job you can imagine. (He and Tim “The Tool Man” Taylor have a lot in common.) The problem is, I can stand in our garage […]

Many employers who sponsor a 401(k) plan use a pre-approved plan document with adoption agreements. Every six years, plan document providers update their 401(k) documents with regulatory changes and file them with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) for review and approval. Once the documents have been pre-approved by the IRS, employers must adopt this pre-approved […]

Federal interest rates are on the rise, which opens new planning options for many individuals to consider. These federal interest rates are used to value retained interests for federal gift tax purposes. Specifically, the so-called IRC 7520 rate is equal to the mid-term applicable federal rate (AFR) times 120%, rounded to the nearest two tenths […]

Many investors and market pundits describe themselves as contrarians. They argue the way to investment success is to zig when others zag. Warren Buffet encapsulates the idea well with his famous quote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” It sounds simple, but how do you know when others are […]