October CPI - Hot Print Solidifies December Hike Expectations

Prices rise more than expected.  October consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month decelerating from a monthly increase of 0.6% in September but exceeding expectations for +0.3%.  CPI data was not reported in October 2025 due to the Federal Government shutdown so year-over-year figures were not available.  Higher energy prices were the main driver of the increase with gasoline prices up 1.0% for the month.  Excluding food and energy, core prices advanced 0.3% compared to September.  The report suggests price pressures continued to build just ahead of the midterm elections when democrats retook control of the House and the Senate following campaigns largely focused on the cost of living.  While more data will become available in the meantime, hotter than expected inflation paired with last week’s healthy jobs report supports expectations for another Fed rate hike in December.

• Consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month.  In October, consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month topping expectations for a 0.3% increase.  Core CPI (excludes food and energy) increased 0.3% month-over-month, higher than expectations for +0.2%.