October Jobs - Flip the Script

Job growth accelerates, Unemployment ticks lower.  Job growth surged in October, and the unemployment rate edged down.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 165K topping all forecasts and building on upward revisions to the prior two months.  Employers across a broad range of sectors added jobs led by professional and business services and healthcare.  While details in last month’s report called labor market strength into question, today’s report is an indication of continued strength.  Overall, hiring has been strong enough to keep the unemployment rate low even as job growth has been uneven from month to month.  Year-to-date resilient consumer spending and strong business investment have been at odds with inflationary pressures and uncertainty from the Iran war.   Fed policymakers will see one more jobs report and a full slate of inflation data before their nest meeting in December.  Investors expect them to raise interest rates at that meeting and continued labor market strength would support that inclination.

• 165k Jobs added in October.  The U.S. labor market added 165k jobs in October topping all expectations while September job gains were favorably revised from +29K to +60K.  Economists were anticipating +70K job gains for the month with estimates ranging from +35K to +131K.  Year-to-date, U.S. employers have added about 86K jobs per month, up from just 10K per month in 2025 and roughly in line with expectations for about 70K per month when the year began.  Employment in professional and business services expanded by 70K while Health Care employment continued its upward trend adding 42k jobs in the month.
• Unemployment toggled back to 4.1%.  The U.S. unemployment rate registered 4.1% in October down 0.1% from a month earlier and better than expectations for no change.  Year-to-date unemployment has occupied a narrow range of 4.1%-4.3%.