October & November Jobs - Delayed Report Validates Fed

October weakness and November rebound. The long-delayed U.S. job growth report showed a loss of 105k in October, followed by a 64k gain in November. The pull back in October was skewed by federal government departures (-162k) which capture the deferred buyouts accepted by employees of the federal government earlier in the year. October unemployment will not be released, due to lack of reporting data from the government shutdown; however, the November print showed a slight increase in unemployment to 4.6%. Nonfarm payrolls (+64k) have shown little net change since April. The Federal Reserve lowered rates for a third straight meeting last week to support a “gradually cooling” labor market with risks of a further slowdown. While policymakers are divided on whether or not more cuts are needed in 2026, today’s report appears to support last week’s split decision.

105k jobs lost in October & 64k gained in November. The U.S. labor market added 64k jobs in November, but lost 105k in October. Year-to-date results remain well below expectations entering the year. Job gains have averaged 78K per month in 2025 compared to expectations for +121K per month when the year began and compared to average monthly gains of +167K in 2024. Job gains trended higher in health care (+46K) and construction (+28K) while Federal government employment is down 271k since reaching a peak in January. Employment showed little change in other major industries.
4.6% unemployment – up 0.2% since September. The U.S. unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.6% in November compared to 4.4% in September, the last month the Labor Department reported the unemployment rate. The increase was largely due to rising labor force participation, as the number of unemployed people was little changed. While still historically low, unemployment has been steadily rising in recent months to the highest level since September 2021. The labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.5% from 62.4% in September. ‘