March Jobs - Beating Expectations

Payrolls and unemployment beat expectations.  In March, U.S. payrolls added 178k jobs, beating expectations while unemployment similarly beat expectations coming in just under February’s print.  Employers added 178k jobs compared to expectations for 60K in gains and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.4% a month earlier.  Today’s report helps settle some fear about the strength of the labor market although the revised loss of 133k jobs in February remains a concern.  The labor force participation rate and number of unemployed people were little changed, showing some stability in the labor market.  The stronger jobs report provides the Federal Reserve with some breathing room and will allow them to wait and see how the Iran war effects overall inflation before moving forward with any rate cuts.

• Payrolls grow 178K in March.  The U.S. labor market added 178k jobs in March after shedding 133K jobs in February.  Expectations were for a gain of 60k.  Health care employment led the way growing by 76K followed by construction at 26k.  Federal government employment continued its decline, shedding 18K in March.  Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down 355K, or 11.8%.  Government employees that were furloughed during the partial shutdown were counted as employed for the purposes of this report.
• 4.3% unemployment – down 0.1% month-over-month.  The U.S. unemployment rate registered 4.3% in March, down from 4.4% in February and slightly better than expectations.  At 61.9%, the labor force participation rate roughly matched the 62% February figure.