January Jobs - Moderating But Healthy

January job gains below expectations, but solid.  Nonfarm payrolls increased 143K in January following a (revised) gain of +307K in December and the unemployment rate is 4.0% to start the year.  Benchmark revisions for 2024 now show that job growth averaged 166K per month last year, down from 186K per month originally reported.  January payroll gains and updated 2024 figures show a moderating yet healthy labor market that continues to support the economy without unduly contributing to inflationary pressures.  This balance supports Fed policymakers inclination to hold off on further rate cuts after cutting by a total of 100 bps last year.

·    143K jobs added in January – below expectations.  The U.S. labor market added 134K jobs in January compared to expectations for +175K.  December job gains were upwardly revised to +307K from +256K originally reported.  Following annual benchmark revisions, the BLS now shows that job growth averaged 166K per month in 2024, down from an average of +186K originally reported and compared to +251K per month in 2023.

·    4.0% unemployment to start the year.  The U.S. unemployment rate stands at 4.0%.  This is 0.1% lower than the December rate of 4.1% however updated population estimates used in the calculation means the two figures are not directly comparable.  The labor force participation rate increased 0.1% to 62.6%.  Year-over-year wage growth was unchanged from December at +4.1%.