May 2, 2025
April Jobs - Better Than Expected
April hiring exceeds expectations, but trade policy uncertainty remains. Nonfarm payrolls increased 177K in April following a (downwardly revised) gain of +185 in March. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. Overall, today’s report highlights a labor market that continues to appear balanced with solid hiring, defying downbeat responses seen in business confidence surveys. It appears businesses have yet to significantly alter hiring plans amid economic uncertainty though we would expect reduced hiring in the months ahead if trade policy concerns are not quickly resolved. For now, the balanced labor market provides the Federal Reserve flexibility to respond to developments that may arise from evolving federal trade and fiscal policy. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for May 7th. At the moment, investors are pricing in 3-4 cuts in 2025 and 1-2 in 2026 though Fed policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady next week.
- 277k jobs added in April – above expectations. The U.S. labor market added 177k jobs in April compared to expectations for +138K. March job gains were revised downward to a yet-solid +185K from +228K originally reported. Above all estimates, April’s outcome reflects solid job growth and modest acceleration in hiring compared with average gains +152K over the prior 12 months. Federal government employment declined by 9K in April and is down 26K since January as the new administration has endeavored to reduce Federal spending.
- 4.2% unemployment – unchanged from March. The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% in April. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024. The labor force participation was little changed, rising 0.1% to 62.6%. Wage growth was stable at 3.8% year-over-year and +0.2%month-over-month. All data points to a balance between labor supply and labor demand.
