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Nicholas A. Juhle, CFA® Chief Investment Officer

October 4, 2024

September Jobs - Surprisingly Strong All Around

Job gains came in stronger than anticipated; unemployment rate falls slightly; revisions to prior months’ data were positive.  The US economy added far more jobs than analysts anticipated in September, in what is the strongest job growth figure since March of this year.  Overall, the report lends credence to the prospect of a soft landing for the U.S. economy.  The labor market added 254k jobs in September compared to 159k (revised) in August and 144k (revised) in July.  The consensus forecast was for 140k additions and for unemployment to remain constant at 4.2%.  The unemployment rate clocked in at 4.1%, down from 4.2% in the prior month and beating expectations.  This report also highlighted labor market strength across the major job categories, with food services and drinking places (+69k) leading the way followed by health care (+45k).  In September, average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year.  Labor force participation remained constant at 62.7%.

  • 254k jobs added in September; August revised higher.  The U.S. labor market added 254k jobs in September compared to expectations for +140K.  August job gains were revised up by 17k to +159k from +142k originally reported.  Hiring was most pronounced in food services and drinking places (+69k), health care (+45K), and the government (+31k) while other areas were either marginally up or flat.  The employment gains within the food services and drinking places far exceeded the 14k average over the prior 12 months indicating consumer strength.
  • 4.1% unemployment – down from 4.2%.  The U.S. unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 4.1% in September, continuing the downward trend that began in August.  Analysts had anticipated unemployment to come in at 4.2% for the month.  The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.7% for the third consecutive month.  Year-over-year, wage growth accelerated slightly to +4.0% from +3.8% in August.  Month-over-month, wages increased 0.4% matching the 0.4% gain in August.