U.S. retail sales rose by more than forecast in March and February results were revised upward, highlighting yet-resilient consumer demand exiting the first quarter.

Year-over-year, inflation rose 3.5% in March, up 0.3% compared to February and 0.1% ahead of expectations.

Job gains were strong again in March (stop me if you’ve heard this before).  The U.S. labor market added 303k jobs in March, exceeding expectations for 214k jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Revisions to January and February data were marginally positive, adding 22k jobs to total employment collectively. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3%, […]

On the heels of a robust holiday shopping season, U.S. retail sales decelerated sharply in January and missed forecasts in February, underscoring concerns over how household spending will hold up this year.

Year-over-year, inflation rose 3.2% in February, up 0.1% compared to January and 0.1% ahead of expectations.  Month-over-month, prices increased +0.4%, up 0.1% compared to January and consistent with expectations.  While inflation has declined substantially from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022, today’s report reinforces the Fed’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates as […]

Strong February job gains mask a gradually cooling labor market.  The unemployment rate climbed to a two-year high of 3.9% in February, but remains below 4% as hiring remained healthy.  The U.S. labor market added 275K jobs following a combined 167K downward revision to the prior two months.  The rise in the unemployment rate appeared […]

You may have seen another regional bank in the headlines recently, NYCB – New York Community Bancorp.  The trouble with NYCB appears to be isolated. However, we wanted to point out that NYCB owns Flagstar bank which has several branches in Michigan. If you have a client with uninsured deposits (>$250,000) at Flagstar, you should […]

The Corporate Transparency Act is simple in concept, but more complicated in its application. Wendy Cox supplies some definitions, deadlines and guidelines on how to navigate the new legislation.

On the heels of a robust holiday shopping season, U.S. retail sales decelerated sharply in January falling short of expectations. 

Surging job gains and higher wages great for economy and consumers, but likely extend rate cut timing.

Year-over-year, inflation accelerated to 3.4% in December – the highest reading since September.

Year-over-year, inflation decelerated modestly to 3.1% from 3.2% in October.  Month-over-month, inflation ticked up to 0.1% from 0.0% in October. 

U.S. employers added more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s intent to keep interest rates higher for longer.

Despite volatility in recent months, inflation has declined substantially from a 40-year high of 9.1% reached last year.

Cooling, not Freezing.  After an unexpected surge in September, U.S. hiring cooled by more than expected in October and the unemployment rate inched slightly higher.  The U.S. labor market added 150K jobs, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, and wages grew slightly less than expected.  Of note: the UAW strike accounted for a 33K decline […]

U.S. retail sales came in better than expected in September underscoring the resiliency of consumer demand exiting the third quarter. In real terms, retail spending increased 0.3% compared to August and 0.1% year-over-year. The advance showcases an American consumer that continues to spend money in spite of a recent energy-driven increase in inflation.

Underlying inflation came in at a brisk 3.7% (year-over-year) pace for a second straight month in September underscoring how a resilient labor market continues to support consumer demand which threatens to keep inflation levels above the Fed’s 2% target.

U.S. hiring unexpectedly surged in September by the most since January, highlighting continuing resiliency of the labor market and bolstering the case for another Fed rate hike.

Hiring up and wage growth down.  U.S. hiring accelerated in August and wage growth cooled – opposing signals from today’s report.  The U.S. labor market added 187K jobs, the unemployment rate rose 0.3% to 3.8%, and wage moderated.  A resilient labor market has been key to ongoing economic expansion in 2023.  While job openings and […]

Today’s report suggests that American consumers, supported by a strong labor market and rising wages, continue to support a growing economy despite tightening monetary policy.

On a year-over-year basis, July inflation data showed overall annualized price increases accelerated slightly to 3.3% (from 3.0% in June) largely owing to base effects of a tougher prior-year compare as peak inflation levels of 9.1% recorded in June 2022 have now annualized.

Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 5.25-5.50% – the highest level in 22 years. The committee left the door open to additional increases as policymakers continue their efforts to quell inflation.

U.S. retail sales came in below expectations on a month-over-month basis, and remained soft year-over-year. In real terms, retail spending was unchanged compared to May and declined 1.5% year-over-year.

June inflation data showed overall annualized price increases slowing for a twelfth straight month to 3.0% – down from a June 2022 peak of 9.1% and to the lowest level in more than two years. 

The U.S. labor market added 209K jobs, the unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 3.6%, and wage growth held steady in June. On July 26, Fed policymakers will decide whether or not to raise interest rates by another 0.25% after pausing in June.

U.S. retail sales were stronger than expected on a month-over-month basis, but remain lower on a year-over-year basis.   

The Fed paused its rate hikes to allow for additional time to assess incoming economic data.

The U.S. labor market added 339K jobs in May after an upwardly revised +294K in April and the unemployment rate jumped 0.3% to 3.7%.

U.S. retail sales increased less than expected month-over-month and decelerated further on a year-over-year basis.

The U.S. labor market added 253K jobs in April after a downwardly revised 165K in March and the unemployment rate fell back to a multi-decade low of 3.4%.

Fed Statement Side-by-Side Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 5.00-5.25%. This has the potential to be the last rate hike as the Fed Funds Rate now matches the 2023 year-end dot plot from the March meeting. Key takeaways: The Fed raised interest rates 0.25%, as expected, to a […]

Job gains moderated, unemployment declined.  With 236K jobs added in March, payroll additions aligned closely with expectations, but marked the lowest monthly gain since December 2020 amid Fed efforts to slow labor demand and cool inflation.  Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.5%.  Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% compared to February contributing to wage […]

Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 4.75-5.00%. It maintained projections for a year-end 2023 top rate of 5.25% – implying one additional 0.25% increase this year.

February inflation data showed overall annualized price increases slowing for an eighth straight month – matching analysts’ expectations

Job report details hint at slowing inflation. 

U.S. retail sales rose in January by the most in nearly two years, signaling robust consumer demand which, combined with yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation report and labor market resiliency, could mean the Fed will need to raise interest rates more than originally expected.

January inflation data showed price increases slowing for the seventh straight month, though not to the degree analysts had anticipated. The

Blockbuster jobs report keeps pressure on the Fed. U.S. employers added significantly more jobs than expected in January and the unemployment rate edged down to a 53-year low.

Fed Statement Side-by-Side: https://file.ac/QIEfaKSk2vI/ Fed raises interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 4.50-4.75%.  The market is now lower than the fed, pricing for a terminal rate of 4.75-5.00% before 75-100 bps of cuts in late 2023 & early 2024. Key takeaways: The Fed raised interest rates 0.25%, as expected, to […]

This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis delivered an advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth.  The report showed that real GDP expanded at an annual rate of 2.9%, compared to expectations of +2.6%, following growth of 3.2% in the third quarter. 

U.S. retail sales fell by more than forecast in December (-1.1% MoM vs. -0.9% expected) with a real year-over-year decline of 0.5%. While real year-over-year retail sales declines can be a leading indicator of a recession, softness is also an indication that Fed efforts to reduce consumer demand, and in turn inflation, is having an impact.

Solid hiring and decelerating wage growth may offer Fed some breathing room. U.S. employers again added more jobs than expected in December and the unemployment rate edged lower while wage growth decelerated more than expected and participation increased slightly. Today’s report highlights resiliency of the labor market, but may also be an early indication that the persistent imbalance between the supply and demand for labor is beginning to unwind. A sustained deceleration in wage growth could lead Fed officials to pursue less aggressive policy moves in the coming months.

U.S. retail sales posted the largest month over month decline in nearly a year reflecting softness in a range of categories that suggest some easing in American’s demand for goods. The report suggests some loss in momentum in consumer demand for goods amid high inflation and a shift in preferences favoring services. While rising wages and excess savings built up during the pandemic have helped support spending, consumers are feeling more pressure. While real year-over-year retail sales declines can be a leading indicator of a recession, softness is also an indication that Fed efforts to reduce consumer demand, and in turn inflation, is having an impact.

• The Fed raised interest rates 0.50%, as expected, to a range of 4.25-4.50%.
• Projections for the rate next year were revised upward by 0.50%, from 4.50-4.75% to 5.00-5.25%. This was a hawkish surprise and is impacting risk assets.
• The bond market is unconvinced, and continues to price in a high-point of a 4.75-5.00% rate and then cuts of 1.00% by early 2024.
• Chair Powell noted that the economy appears to be slowing, but continued to characterize the labor market as out-of-balance, and risks to inflation as skewed to the upside.

November inflation data surprised positively this morning for the second month in a row offering hope that decades high price increases are easing and perhaps giving Fed policymakers additional breathing room in the months ahead.